As those of you following some of Canada’s public affairs influencers (including my friend and colleague Lanny Cardow) on Twitter, will note, The Toronto Star raised quite a storm yesterday with its above-the-fold story about a Facebook group protesting Prime Minister Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament.

The problem? The Star would lead you to believe that there is a “grassroots fury” over Harper’s decision to prorogue:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s decision to shut down Parliament for the next two months is facing a growing public uprising, which is building on social networks across Canada and is set to spill over in dozens of protest rallies this month (emphasis added).

Some pretty strong words, especially considering there were approximately 25,000 group members when the story went to press. Thanks to all the attention though, that number now sits at over 67,000. That’s a hefty two-day gain. But while Gerry Nicholls is “impressed” with the response, he argues that it’s not a grassroots fury:

It certainly shows that lots of people on Facebook disagree with the prorogation. But clicking a link on Facebook is no measure of emotional intensity. And it’s emotional intensity which fuels “grassroots fury.” You need such intensity to pick up the phone and complain to your MP or to a radio talk show host, you need such intensity to get citizens marching on Parliament Hill or to attend rallies. You need such intensity, in short, to mobilize the grassroots. So far I don’t see any evidence of such emotional intensity among Canadians when it comes to shutting down Parliament.

The National Post didn’t mince words either:

For all we know, that 20,000 figure is up to 50,000 now, thanks to the Star publicity. Or maybe even 100,000. Who knows? But for the sake of context, let’s look at some other causes that also got a six-digit response: Almost 300,000 people have joined a group encouraging rocker John Mellencamp to quit smoking. Another hundred thousand people have joined a group encouraging random people to move to Finland. A whopping half-million people have used the power of Facebook to declare that they enjoy the television program 90210.

Finally, TVO’s Mike Miner, like Nicholls, suggests that you can’t have a grassroots movement without emotional intensity:

…putting an easy-to-opt-in, zero commitment “join this group” tab in front of users on their favorite online time waster isn’t the same thing as a grassroots movement. (Presumably a nation of disgruntled democracy fans aren’t turning their eyes to group founder Christopher White for solace and guidance.) It certainly indicates that a lot of Canadians are interested in this subject, but doesn’t show how strongly they feel about it.

I agree with these criticisms. On it’s own, this Facebook group is a far cry from being a grassroots movement. Anyone who uses the size of this group as proof that Canadians are ready to take it to the streets has a very loose idea of what a grassroots movement is. But I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss this Facebook group just yet.

It’s what comes next that matters. Social media is only an effective advocacy tool if it leads to offline action. The “organizers” behind this page have the first and necessary ingredient required to lead an actual grassroots movement: online enthusiasm. Almost 70,000 people have (even for a fraction of a second) felt a need to express that they were against prorogation. If these organizers are serious, they’ll convert this online enthusiasm into offline action. Apparently they’re planning marches in 20 cities across Canada. Very noble, but I’ll be surprised if these rallies develop into anything substantial. The ask is too big. You can’t go from asking people to click a button to having them take out their pitchforks and taking their anger to the streets.

But they could move people up the support ladder:have people lead and respond to discussion topics; recruit friends to the group; sign a petition, send a letter or email to MPs — incrementally increase the ask. If they do that, their supporters might be prepared to protest in the streets. Moving a supporter from a position of online enthusiast to offline advocate is a giant leap, but it’s very doable. If they get there, they can thank the Toronto Star for the big front-page promo.

- Joseph Lavoie